It is highly unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates on January 29. However, a cut in March or May could be possible.

The Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 28 and 29, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates right where they are after cutting three times since September.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury has recently soared toward its highest level since 2023, injecting nervousness into the U.S. stock market that's knocked indexes from their records.

Financial markets are still concerned about inflation. The Fed influences short-term interest rates, which are falling, but longer-term bonds like the 10-year Treasury are a better reflection of inflation expectations.

Markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to deliver just one more quarter-point interest-rate cut this year, but there’s a little less certainty than before. There is a 34% chance that the Fed’s key rate finished the year at 4%-4.