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兴业证券:特朗普新政从关税到通胀有几步?
智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券发布研报称,特朗普2.0以债务化解为核心思路的政策组合拳,包括提振经济、货币宽松、制造业回流等,不同政策的实现路径其实存在矛盾。长期来看,激进关税会加剧特朗普框架的内在矛盾,关税设计可能考虑区分度。全面关税侧重于贸易保护而牺牲税收和通胀,则特朗普削减赤字和稳定物价的目标均将受阻,而贸易保护带来的美元使用范围缩圈本身就会令美债需求承压,叠加高通胀造成的利率中枢上移,美债可 ...
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